Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +9.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Toews wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 58.4% vs Gourde 49.5% (+9.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 83.6%
Defensive zone
Toews 83.3%
Neutral zone
Toews 75.4%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 83.4%
83.4%
16.6%
Toews
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Toews
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
1
0
Toews
Gourde
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
2
1
Toews
Gourde
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (901)
49.1% (731)
+8.9%
Power Play
69.5% (226)
54.3% (81)
+15.2%
Penalty Kill
51.7% (209)
48.2% (85)
+3.5%
On power play, Toews has a +15.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Toews is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (821).
Toews shoots left. Gourde is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (556).
Home / Away
Toews
Gourde
Home
59.3% (637)
50.9% (479)
Away
58.7% (699)
47.8% (418)
By Period
Toews
Gourde
P1
61.5%
51.2%
P2
55.2%
49.8%
P3
60.0%
47.5%
OT
70.6%
66.7%
Final 5 min
57.9%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
59.0%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2022 | 3 | 00:47 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Apr 7, 2022 | 1 | 01:36 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 17, 2022 | OT | 01:19 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 17, 2021 | 3 | 09:01 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |