Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Spezza wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 53.7% vs Staal 55.7% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 63.7%
Defensive zone
Staal 53.6%
Neutral zone
Staal 50.1%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 51.5%
48.5%
51.5%
Spezza
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Spezza
Staal
Last 5: Spezza 1-4 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Spezza
Staal
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
0
3
Spezza
Staal
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (998)
56.6% (769)
-3.6%
Power Play
58.5% (248)
60.2% (98)
-1.7%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (16)
27.8% (18)
+22.2%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +22.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Spezza is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (919).
Spezza shoots right. Staal is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (366).
Home / Away
Spezza
Staal
Home
56.4% (626)
57.8% (510)
Away
51.7% (636)
54.4% (375)
By Period
Spezza
Staal
P1
56.9%
55.1%
P2
51.9%
56.8%
P3
53.9%
57.1%
OT
46.2%
62.5%
Final 5 min
54.7%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.0%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
56.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2015 | 3 | 17:45 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 12, 2015 | 3 | 11:48 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 12, 2015 | 3 | 11:37 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 12, 2015 | 1 | 18:58 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 12, 2015 | 1 | 10:38 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |