Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.3% vs 55.2%). Look for Brown on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Staal wins 58.8% vs right-shot opponents — Brown shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs Brown 54.6% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 70.5%
Defensive zone
Brown 68.7%
Neutral zone
Brown 57.9%
Result
Patrick Brown favored at 54.4%
45.6%
54.4%
Staal
Brown
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Staal
Brown
Last 7: Staal 2-5 Brown
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Staal
Brown
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Brown
0
3
Staal
Brown
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Staal
Brown
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Brown
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (14,620)
56.5% (726)
-0.6%
Power Play
62.7% (1,745)
62.5% (8)
+0.2%
Penalty Kill
48.0% (2,896)
47.8% (136)
+0.2%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Brown shoots right. Staal is 58.8% vs right-shot opponents (6,553).
Staal shoots left. Brown is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (619).
Home / Away
Staal
Brown
Home
56.4% (9,663)
57.4% (364)
Away
54.3% (9,663)
53.6% (506)
By Period
Staal
Brown
P1
55.2%
51.4%
P2
55.9%
54.6%
P3
54.9%
58.8%
OT
56.2%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.1%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.3%
Brown
44.0%▼
48.5%
55.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2022 | 3 | 10:29 | Defensive | Patrick Brown |
| Feb 21, 2022 | 3 | 18:26 | Neutral | Patrick Brown |
| Feb 21, 2022 | 3 | 07:34 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 21, 2022 | 3 | 07:15 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 21, 2022 | 1 | 16:10 | Defensive | Patrick Brown |
| Feb 21, 2022 | 1 | 08:37 | Offensive | Patrick Brown |
| Nov 12, 2021 | 3 | 18:59 | Defensive | Patrick Brown |