Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Staal wins 58.8% vs right-shot opponents — Carpenter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs Carpenter 48.5% (+6.9%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Staal 77.6%
Defensive zone
Staal 53.2%
Neutral zone
Staal 59.6%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 67.0%
67.0%
33.0%
Staal
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
5
(12 meetings)
7
5
Staal
Carpenter
Last 10: Staal 6-4 Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
5
1
Staal
Carpenter
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
1
2
Staal
Carpenter
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carpenter
1
2
Staal
Carpenter
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (14,620)
49.6% (2,027)
+6.3%
Power Play
62.7% (1,745)
41.5% (41)
+21.2%
Penalty Kill
48.0% (2,896)
43.9% (467)
+4.1%
On power play, Staal has a +21.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Staal is 58.8% vs right-shot opponents (6,553).
Staal shoots left. Carpenter is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,840).
Home / Away
Staal
Carpenter
Home
56.4% (9,663)
51.2% (1,290)
Away
54.3% (9,663)
45.5% (1,245)
By Period
Staal
Carpenter
P1
55.2%
49.6%
P2
55.9%
47.7%
P3
54.9%
48.0%
OT
56.2%
55.6%
Final 5 min
56.1%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.3%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2023 | 1 | 14:52 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Apr 1, 2021 | 3 | 15:06 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Apr 1, 2021 | 3 | 06:26 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Mar 30, 2021 | 3 | 17:40 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 30, 2021 | 3 | 17:32 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 30, 2021 | 3 | 14:44 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 30, 2021 | 3 | 10:20 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Mar 30, 2021 | 3 | 05:36 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 19, 2021 | 2 | 10:13 | Offensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 3, 2018 | 3 | 07:03 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 3, 2018 | 2 | 04:02 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 3, 2018 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |