Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Staal wins 60.2% vs right-shot opponents — Carpenter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs Carpenter 52.2% (+1.7%)
Offensive zone
Carpenter 62.0%
Defensive zone
Staal 51.8%
Neutral zone
Carpenter 54.9%
Result
Ryan Carpenter favored at 55.1%
44.9%
55.1%
Staal
Carpenter
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (1,115)
53.1% (113)
+3.2%
Power Play
61.2% (67)
100.0% (1)
-38.8%
Penalty Kill
52.1% (292)
60.0% (10)
-7.9%
On power play, Carpenter has a +38.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Staal is 60.2% vs right-shot opponents (528).
Staal shoots left. Carpenter is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (88).
Home / Away
Staal
Carpenter
Home
58.3% (705)
58.5% (65)
Away
53.3% (769)
49.2% (59)
By Period
Staal
Carpenter
P1
54.5%
65.8%
P2
58.2%
50.0%
P3
54.1%
47.9%
Final 5 min
54.9%
43.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.7%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
54.0%