Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Staal wins 61.5% vs right-shot opponents — Carpenter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 57.3% vs Carpenter 49.1% (+9.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carpenter 53.1%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 55.1%
Neutral zone
Carpenter 57.1%
Result
Ryan Carpenter favored at 54.4%
45.6%
54.4%
Staal
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Staal
Carpenter
Last 8: Staal 4-4 Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
3
1
Staal
Carpenter
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
1
2
Staal
Carpenter
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carpenter
0
1
Staal
Carpenter
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
57.2% (780)
51.9% (81)
+5.3%
Power Play
71.3% (171)
41.2% (17)
+30.1%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (132)
42.9% (28)
+2.6%
On power play, Staal has a +30.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Staal is 61.5% vs right-shot opponents (369).
Staal shoots left. Carpenter is 51.6% vs left-shot opponents (91).
Home / Away
Staal
Carpenter
Home
57.6% (566)
60.3% (68)
Away
58.4% (517)
34.5% (58)
By Period
Staal
Carpenter
P1
55.6%
43.2%
P2
58.5%
55.8%
P3
60.6%
46.2%
Final 5 min
56.6%
40.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
58.0%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2021 | 3 | 15:06 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Apr 1, 2021 | 3 | 06:26 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Mar 30, 2021 | 3 | 17:40 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 30, 2021 | 3 | 17:32 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 30, 2021 | 3 | 14:44 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 30, 2021 | 3 | 10:20 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Mar 30, 2021 | 3 | 05:36 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 19, 2021 | 2 | 10:13 | Offensive | Ryan Carpenter |