Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Staal wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Frederic shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs Frederic 46.8% (+8.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frederic 55.4%
Defensive zone
Frederic 50.2%
Neutral zone
Frederic 56.3%
Result
Trent Frederic favored at 54.3%
45.7%
54.3%
Staal
Frederic
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Staal
Frederic
Last 7: Staal 3-4 Frederic
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frederic
0
2
Staal
Frederic
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Staal
Frederic
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
2
1
Staal
Frederic
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Frederic
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (14,620)
46.3% (909)
+9.6%
Power Play
62.7% (1,745)
63.3% (30)
-0.6%
Penalty Kill
48.0% (2,896)
35.5% (31)
+12.5%
On penalty kill, Staal has a +12.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frederic shoots left. Staal is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (12,773).
Staal shoots left. Frederic is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (618).
Home / Away
Staal
Frederic
Home
56.4% (9,663)
47.6% (485)
Away
54.3% (9,663)
45.4% (485)
By Period
Staal
Frederic
P1
55.2%
41.9%
P2
55.9%
48.0%
P3
54.9%
49.8%
OT
56.2%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.1%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.3%
Frederic
58.0%▲
54.0%
46.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2024 | 2 | 01:29 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 17:23 | Offensive | Trent Frederic |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 24, 2024 | 2 | 08:50 | Defensive | Trent Frederic |
| Jan 24, 2024 | 1 | 18:04 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 24, 2024 | 1 | 14:34 | Offensive | Trent Frederic |
| Jan 24, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Trent Frederic |