Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Kozak on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Staal wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Kozak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.2% vs Kozak 47.8% (+8.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kozak 72.2%
Defensive zone
Kozak 64.5%
Neutral zone
Kozak 69.2%
Result
Tyson Kozak favored at 70.0%
30.0%
70.0%
Staal
Kozak
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Staal
Kozak
Last 7: Staal 2-5 Kozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Staal
Kozak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kozak
1
4
Staal
Kozak
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Kozak
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (1,017)
46.0% (137)
+11.0%
Power Play
57.7% (26)
66.7% (3)
-9.0%
Penalty Kill
45.1% (286)
40.0% (5)
+5.1%
On even strength, Staal has a +11.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kozak shoots left. Staal is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (988).
Staal shoots left. Kozak is 50.6% vs left-shot opponents (83).
Home / Away
Staal
Kozak
Home
54.3% (667)
51.2% (84)
Away
54.7% (662)
39.3% (61)
By Period
Staal
Kozak
P1
56.2%
57.1%
P2
57.0%
34.7%
P3
49.7%
48.1%
Final 5 min
48.8%
46.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.5%
Kozak
50.0%▬
49.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2025 | 3 | 13:04 | Offensive | Tyson Kozak |
| Jan 15, 2025 | 3 | 03:45 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 15, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyson Kozak |
| Jan 15, 2025 | 2 | 19:02 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 15, 2025 | 2 | 00:09 | Neutral | Tyson Kozak |
| Jan 15, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyson Kozak |
| Jan 15, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyson Kozak |