Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Kozak on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Staal wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Kozak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs Kozak 48.8% (+6.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 60.5%
Defensive zone
Kozak 66.6%
Neutral zone
Kozak 57.2%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 50.7%
50.7%
49.3%
Staal
Kozak
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Staal
Kozak
Last 9: Staal 4-5 Kozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
3
1
Staal
Kozak
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kozak
1
4
Staal
Kozak
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Kozak
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (14,620)
48.3% (431)
+7.6%
Power Play
62.7% (1,745)
62.5% (8)
+0.2%
Penalty Kill
48.0% (2,896)
48.9% (45)
-0.9%
On even strength, Staal has a +7.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kozak shoots left. Staal is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (12,773).
Staal shoots left. Kozak is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (322).
Home / Away
Staal
Kozak
Home
56.4% (9,663)
47.6% (229)
Away
54.3% (9,663)
49.4% (255)
By Period
Staal
Kozak
P1
55.2%
54.4%
P2
55.9%
45.7%
P3
54.9%
45.7%
Final 5 min
56.1%
45.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.3%
Kozak
50.0%▬
49.0%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 16:33 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1 | 15:35 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 15, 2025 | 3 | 13:04 | Offensive | Tyson Kozak |
| Jan 15, 2025 | 3 | 03:45 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 15, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyson Kozak |
| Jan 15, 2025 | 2 | 19:02 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 15, 2025 | 2 | 00:09 | Neutral | Tyson Kozak |
| Jan 15, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyson Kozak |
| Jan 15, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyson Kozak |