Scouting Report
Josh Bailey holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for True on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
True 48.5% vs Bailey 50.0% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
True leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Bailey 74.3%
Defensive zone
Bailey 58.8%
Neutral zone
Bailey 56.1%
Result
Josh Bailey favored at 62.6%
37.4%
62.6%
True
Bailey
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
4
(12 meetings)
8
4
True
Bailey
Last 10: True 8-2 Bailey
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: True
3
1
True
Bailey
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bailey
0
2
True
Bailey
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: True
5
1
True
Bailey
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
True
Bailey
Edge
Even Strength
47.1% (68)
50.8% (189)
-3.7%
Power Play
0.0% (1)
52.8% (53)
-52.8%
On power play, Bailey has a +52.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bailey shoots left. True is 49.1% vs left-shot opponents (55).
True shoots left. Bailey is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (139).
Home / Away
True
Bailey
Home
66.7% (18)
55.2% (145)
Away
39.2% (51)
43.2% (111)
By Period
True
Bailey
P1
52.4%
42.4%
P2
44.0%
52.2%
P3
43.5%
56.9%
Final 5 min
50.0%
45.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
True
42.0%▬
43.1%
46.4%
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2020 | 3 | 18:13 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 23, 2020 | 3 | 05:14 | Offensive | Alexander True |
| Feb 23, 2020 | 2 | 17:46 | Offensive | Alexander True |
| Feb 23, 2020 | 2 | 17:38 | Neutral | Alexander True |
| Feb 23, 2020 | 2 | 08:11 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 23, 2020 | 2 | 05:02 | Neutral | Alexander True |
| Feb 23, 2020 | 2 | 01:10 | Neutral | Alexander True |
| Feb 23, 2020 | 1 | 10:44 | Neutral | Alexander True |
| Feb 23, 2020 | 1 | 10:36 | Neutral | Alexander True |
| Feb 23, 2020 | 1 | 07:23 | Offensive | Alexander True |
| Feb 23, 2020 | 1 | 06:49 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 23, 2020 | 1 | 04:29 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |