Scouting Report
Patrice Bergeron holds a +19.4% FO% edge overall. Bailey wins 42.1% vs right-shot opponents — Bergeron shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bailey 45.9% vs Bergeron 60.5% (-19.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bailey 84.9%
Defensive zone
Bailey 58.3%
Neutral zone
Bailey 80.1%
Result
Josh Bailey favored at 58.3%
58.3%
41.7%
Bailey
Bergeron
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Bailey
Bergeron
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bergeron
0
2
Bailey
Bergeron
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bailey
Bergeron
Edge
Even Strength
41.7% (84)
62.5% (1,109)
-20.8%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
62.2% (352)
-33.6%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (5)
53.5% (245)
+6.5%
On power play, Bergeron has a +33.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bergeron shoots right. Bailey is 42.1% vs right-shot opponents (38).
Bailey shoots left. Bergeron is 63.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,178).
Home / Away
Bailey
Bergeron
Home
37.9% (58)
61.9% (917)
Away
47.4% (38)
60.2% (789)
By Period
Bailey
Bergeron
P1
47.2%
60.8%
P2
41.7%
60.3%
P3
33.3%
63.0%
Final 5 min
36.0%
58.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
41.7%
Bergeron
76.0%▲
64.5%
61.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2023 | 2 | 02:19 | Defensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Jan 18, 2023 | 1 | 19:23 | Defensive | Patrice Bergeron |