Scouting Report
Riley Nash holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Nash on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Bailey wins 42.7% vs right-shot opponents — Nash shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bailey 45.5% vs Nash 48.5% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Nash leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Bailey 61.9%
Defensive zone
Nash 56.0%
Neutral zone
Bailey 51.7%
Result
Josh Bailey favored at 50.6%
50.6%
49.4%
Bailey
Nash
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
8
(14 meetings)
6
8
Bailey
Nash
Last 10: Bailey 3-7 Nash
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nash
1
2
Bailey
Nash
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Bailey
Nash
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nash
2
3
Bailey
Nash
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bailey
Nash
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (1,991)
48.7% (4,621)
-2.9%
Power Play
48.1% (295)
51.0% (249)
-2.9%
Penalty Kill
39.9% (281)
44.9% (550)
-5.0%
On penalty kill, Nash has a +5.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nash shoots right. Bailey is 42.7% vs right-shot opponents (995).
Bailey shoots left. Nash is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,747).
Home / Away
Bailey
Nash
Home
46.6% (1,353)
50.2% (2,740)
Away
44.0% (1,232)
46.7% (2,681)
By Period
Bailey
Nash
P1
46.5%
49.0%
P2
44.8%
47.9%
P3
44.4%
48.0%
OT
51.1%
68.4%
Final 5 min
43.6%
45.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
45.3%
Nash
48.0%▼
49.5%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2019 | 3 | 15:22 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 14, 2019 | 1 | 18:56 | Defensive | Riley Nash |
| Jan 18, 2018 | 1 | 11:46 | Defensive | Riley Nash |
| Mar 26, 2016 | 2 | 05:34 | Neutral | Riley Nash |
| Nov 7, 2013 | 1 | 18:39 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Oct 19, 2013 | 3 | 13:19 | Neutral | Riley Nash |
| Feb 24, 2013 | 3 | 10:23 | Defensive | Riley Nash |
| Jan 31, 2012 | 3 | 19:44 | Offensive | Riley Nash |
| Jan 31, 2012 | 3 | 19:37 | Neutral | Riley Nash |
| Jan 31, 2012 | 3 | 10:05 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Jan 31, 2012 | 3 | 05:30 | Offensive | Riley Nash |
| Jan 31, 2012 | 1 | 16:37 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Jan 31, 2012 | 1 | 05:57 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Jan 31, 2012 | 1 | 05:49 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |