Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Bailey wins 44.0% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bailey 45.2% vs O'Reilly 51.6% (-7.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bailey 81.8%
Defensive zone
Bailey 65.4%
Neutral zone
Bailey 74.6%
Result
Josh Bailey favored at 70.5%
70.5%
29.5%
Bailey
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Bailey
O'Reilly
Last 5: Bailey 1-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bailey
1
0
Bailey
O'Reilly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Bailey
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Bailey
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bailey
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (441)
53.4% (770)
-9.2%
Power Play
48.1% (81)
55.6% (54)
-7.5%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (84)
44.4% (196)
-2.7%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +9.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Bailey is 44.0% vs left-shot opponents (386).
Bailey shoots left. O'Reilly is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (723).
Home / Away
Bailey
O'Reilly
Home
43.1% (295)
53.5% (533)
Away
45.6% (320)
50.0% (492)
By Period
Bailey
O'Reilly
P1
46.5%
50.8%
P2
45.7%
52.4%
P3
41.3%
51.6%
OT
38.5%
66.7%
Final 5 min
44.7%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
44.4%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2010 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 16, 2010 | 2 | 19:46 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 16, 2010 | 2 | 10:57 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 16, 2010 | 1 | 17:55 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Oct 16, 2010 | 1 | 08:21 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |