Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +10.7% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Bailey wins 47.0% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bailey 45.5% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-10.7%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 11-5 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Bailey 81.2%
Defensive zone
Bailey 87.3%
Neutral zone
Bailey 88.2%
Result
Josh Bailey favored at 85.3%
85.3%
14.7%
Bailey
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
11
(16 meetings)
5
11
Bailey
O'Reilly
Last 10: Bailey 4-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Bailey
O'Reilly
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
5
Bailey
O'Reilly
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
3
Bailey
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bailey
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (1,991)
56.2% (15,260)
-10.4%
Power Play
48.1% (295)
58.8% (3,445)
-10.7%
Penalty Kill
39.9% (281)
51.4% (2,811)
-11.5%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Bailey is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,590).
Bailey shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
Home / Away
Bailey
O'Reilly
Home
46.6% (1,353)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
44.0% (1,232)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Bailey
O'Reilly
P1
46.5%
55.6%
P2
44.8%
57.0%
P3
44.4%
55.1%
OT
51.1%
62.2%
Final 5 min
43.6%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
45.3%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2022 | 2 | 01:11 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 3 | 01:59 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 27, 2020 | 2 | 19:41 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 5, 2019 | 3 | 17:51 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 5, 2019 | 3 | 14:03 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 7, 2017 | 3 | 01:01 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 7, 2017 | 2 | 00:17 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 9, 2016 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Nov 10, 2011 | 3 | 08:40 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Nov 10, 2011 | 2 | 18:33 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 10, 2011 | 2 | 10:21 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 16, 2010 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 16, 2010 | 2 | 19:46 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 16, 2010 | 2 | 10:57 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 16, 2010 | 1 | 17:55 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Oct 16, 2010 | 1 | 08:21 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |