Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +14.1% FO% edge overall. Bailey wins 41.4% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bailey 45.9% vs O'Reilly 55.2% (-14.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 55.5%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 94.1%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 70.3%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 55.5%
44.5%
55.5%
Bailey
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Bailey
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bailey
2
0
Bailey
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bailey
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
41.7% (84)
56.1% (690)
-14.4%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
64.6% (96)
-36.0%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (5)
45.9% (109)
+14.1%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +36.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Bailey is 41.4% vs left-shot opponents (58).
Bailey shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (603).
Home / Away
Bailey
O'Reilly
Home
37.9% (58)
58.3% (408)
Away
47.4% (38)
53.6% (487)
By Period
Bailey
O'Reilly
P1
47.2%
57.7%
P2
41.7%
54.8%
P3
33.3%
55.2%
Final 5 min
36.0%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
41.7%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2022 | 2 | 01:11 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 3 | 01:59 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |