Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (45.3% vs 45.9%). Look for Gagner on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Bailey wins 42.7% vs right-shot opponents — Gagner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bailey 45.5% vs Gagner 46.0% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Gagner leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Gagner 53.4%
Defensive zone
Bailey 66.9%
Neutral zone
Bailey 55.5%
Result
Josh Bailey favored at 57.7%
57.7%
42.3%
Bailey
Gagner
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Bailey
Gagner
Last 10: Bailey 3-7 Gagner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gagner
1
3
Bailey
Gagner
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gagner
2
3
Bailey
Gagner
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gagner
0
1
Bailey
Gagner
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bailey
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (1,991)
45.4% (4,699)
+0.4%
Power Play
48.1% (295)
51.5% (928)
-3.4%
Penalty Kill
39.9% (281)
35.0% (226)
+4.9%
On penalty kill, Bailey has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. Bailey is 42.7% vs right-shot opponents (995).
Bailey shoots left. Gagner is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (4,184).
Home / Away
Bailey
Gagner
Home
46.6% (1,353)
48.7% (3,025)
Away
44.0% (1,232)
43.0% (2,843)
By Period
Bailey
Gagner
P1
46.5%
44.6%
P2
44.8%
46.1%
P3
44.4%
47.3%
OT
51.1%
42.0%
Final 5 min
43.6%
45.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
45.3%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
45.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2019 | 1 | 06:09 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Mar 6, 2014 | 1 | 18:35 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Dec 31, 2011 | 2 | 15:52 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Dec 31, 2011 | 2 | 07:24 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Jan 6, 2011 | 3 | 01:30 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Jan 6, 2011 | 2 | 18:49 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Jan 6, 2011 | 2 | 14:40 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Jan 6, 2011 | 2 | 05:06 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Jan 6, 2011 | 2 | 02:47 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Jan 6, 2011 | 1 | 17:22 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |