Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (44.4% vs 43.9%). Look for Gagner on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Bailey wins 45.0% vs right-shot opponents — Gagner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bailey 45.2% vs Gagner 44.4% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gagner 54.5%
Defensive zone
Bailey 52.4%
Neutral zone
Gagner 50.3%
Result
Sam Gagner favored at 50.3%
49.7%
50.3%
Bailey
Gagner
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Bailey
Gagner
Last 6: Bailey 2-4 Gagner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Bailey
Gagner
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gagner
1
2
Bailey
Gagner
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gagner
0
1
Bailey
Gagner
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bailey
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (441)
43.1% (758)
+1.1%
Power Play
48.1% (81)
50.3% (147)
-2.2%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (84)
34.6% (26)
+7.1%
On penalty kill, Bailey has a +7.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. Bailey is 45.0% vs right-shot opponents (229).
Bailey shoots left. Gagner is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (682).
Home / Away
Bailey
Gagner
Home
43.1% (295)
47.4% (468)
Away
45.6% (320)
40.3% (467)
By Period
Bailey
Gagner
P1
46.5%
43.8%
P2
45.7%
43.8%
P3
41.3%
44.0%
OT
38.5%
42.9%
Final 5 min
44.7%
42.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
44.4%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
43.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2011 | 3 | 01:30 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Jan 6, 2011 | 2 | 18:49 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Jan 6, 2011 | 2 | 14:40 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Jan 6, 2011 | 2 | 05:06 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Jan 6, 2011 | 2 | 02:47 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Jan 6, 2011 | 1 | 17:22 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |