Scouting Report
Tyler Seguin holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Seguin on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Bailey wins 45.0% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bailey 45.2% vs Seguin 49.6% (-5.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bailey 57.1%
Defensive zone
Bailey 64.1%
Neutral zone
Bailey 59.1%
Result
Josh Bailey favored at 60.4%
60.4%
39.6%
Bailey
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Bailey
Seguin
Last 6: Bailey 2-4 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
0
1
Bailey
Seguin
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Bailey
Seguin
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Seguin
1
2
Bailey
Seguin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bailey
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (441)
48.9% (274)
-4.7%
Power Play
48.1% (81)
53.8% (26)
-5.7%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (84)
50.0% (2)
-8.3%
On penalty kill, Seguin has a +8.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Bailey is 45.0% vs right-shot opponents (229).
Bailey shoots left. Seguin is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (231).
Home / Away
Bailey
Seguin
Home
43.1% (295)
53.5% (129)
Away
45.6% (320)
46.6% (174)
By Period
Bailey
Seguin
P1
46.5%
52.3%
P2
45.7%
48.1%
P3
41.3%
47.8%
OT
38.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
44.7%
47.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
44.4%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2011 | 3 | 04:31 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 17, 2011 | 3 | 01:36 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Feb 17, 2011 | 2 | 05:36 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Feb 17, 2011 | 2 | 01:50 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Feb 17, 2011 | 1 | 07:38 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Feb 17, 2011 | 1 | 04:44 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |