Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Kastelic on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Dunne wins 53.1% vs right-shot opponents — Kastelic shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dunne 50.3% vs Kastelic 55.9% (-5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dunne 62.1%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 86.0%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 62.3%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 70.1%
29.9%
70.1%
Dunne
Kastelic
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Dunne
Kastelic
Last 6: Dunne 4-2 Kastelic
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dunne
1
0
Dunne
Kastelic
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
1
2
Dunne
Kastelic
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dunne
2
0
Dunne
Kastelic
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dunne
Kastelic
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (46)
58.0% (476)
-8.0%
Power Play
60.0% (5)
75.0% (8)
-15.0%
On power play, Kastelic has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kastelic shoots right. Dunne is 53.1% vs right-shot opponents (32).
Dunne shoots left. Kastelic is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (391).
Home / Away
Dunne
Kastelic
Home
50.0% (20)
64.9% (265)
Away
51.6% (31)
50.5% (325)
By Period
Dunne
Kastelic
P1
41.7%
58.5%
P2
72.7%
55.6%
P3
46.4%
56.8%
Final 5 min
41.7%
62.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dunne
62.0%▲
45.2%
51.0%
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2023 | 3 | 17:51 | Offensive | Josh Dunne |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 3 | 15:57 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 3 | 14:11 | Neutral | Josh Dunne |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 3 | 06:37 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 3 | 06:29 | Defensive | Josh Dunne |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 1 | 08:50 | Neutral | Josh Dunne |