Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +11.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Kastelic on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Dunne wins 45.8% vs right-shot opponents — Kastelic shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dunne 46.9% vs Kastelic 56.5% (-11.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kastelic 51.9%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 84.5%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 71.7%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 74.8%
25.2%
74.8%
Dunne
Kastelic
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Dunne
Kastelic
Last 6: Dunne 4-2 Kastelic
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dunne
1
0
Dunne
Kastelic
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
1
2
Dunne
Kastelic
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dunne
2
0
Dunne
Kastelic
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dunne
Kastelic
Edge
Even Strength
47.1% (174)
57.0% (1,613)
-9.9%
Power Play
37.5% (8)
80.0% (25)
-42.5%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (6)
53.6% (274)
-53.6%
On penalty kill, Kastelic has a +53.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kastelic shoots right. Dunne is 45.8% vs right-shot opponents (72).
Dunne shoots left. Kastelic is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,420).
Home / Away
Dunne
Kastelic
Home
48.3% (60)
58.9% (895)
Away
43.8% (128)
55.1% (1,017)
By Period
Dunne
Kastelic
P1
42.6%
58.5%
P2
51.7%
56.9%
P3
42.1%
55.3%
Final 5 min
42.9%
59.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dunne
62.0%▲
45.2%
45.2%
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2023 | 3 | 17:51 | Offensive | Josh Dunne |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 3 | 15:57 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 3 | 14:11 | Neutral | Josh Dunne |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 3 | 06:37 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 3 | 06:29 | Defensive | Josh Dunne |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 1 | 08:50 | Neutral | Josh Dunne |