Scouting Report
Josh Norris holds a +10.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Marner on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Norris wins 53.6% vs right-shot opponents — Marner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Norris 52.1% vs Marner 43.1% (+10.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Marner 62.2%
Defensive zone
Marner 62.2%
Neutral zone
Marner 63.4%
Result
Mitch Marner favored at 62.8%
37.2%
62.8%
Norris
Marner
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Norris
Marner
Last 6: Norris 2-4 Marner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Norris
1
0
Norris
Marner
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Marner
0
2
Norris
Marner
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Marner
1
2
Norris
Marner
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Norris
Marner
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (3,057)
42.2% (462)
+10.3%
Power Play
53.7% (404)
55.6% (18)
-1.9%
Penalty Kill
45.4% (240)
35.4% (65)
+10.0%
On even strength, Norris has a +10.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Marner shoots right. Norris is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,309).
Norris shoots left. Marner is 40.1% vs left-shot opponents (372).
Home / Away
Norris
Marner
Home
53.1% (1,856)
38.2% (293)
Away
51.2% (1,845)
46.0% (252)
By Period
Norris
Marner
P1
55.6%
39.1%
P2
51.4%
41.1%
P3
50.1%
47.1%
OT
40.5%
40.0%
Final 5 min
53.3%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Norris
52.0%▲
50.5%
52.1%
Marner
48.0%▲
40.0%
41.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 13:19 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 07:00 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 18:46 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 10:42 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 04:21 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Jan 15, 2021 | 1 | 18:40 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |