Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Norris on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Norris 49.9% vs Zacha 51.8% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Norris leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Zacha 51.4%
Defensive zone
Zacha 66.0%
Neutral zone
Zacha 60.2%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 58.1%
41.9%
58.1%
Norris
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Norris
Zacha
Last 10: Norris 6-4 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
1
4
Norris
Zacha
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Norris
4
0
Norris
Zacha
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Norris
1
0
Norris
Zacha
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Norris
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (388)
53.0% (700)
-2.5%
Power Play
47.6% (84)
54.1% (109)
-6.5%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
39.2% (74)
+3.7%
On power play, Zacha has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Norris is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (321).
Norris shoots left. Zacha is 51.5% vs left-shot opponents (520).
Home / Away
Norris
Zacha
Home
48.1% (233)
51.6% (438)
Away
51.6% (246)
52.4% (445)
By Period
Norris
Zacha
P1
53.1%
57.0%
P2
49.2%
48.9%
P3
48.4%
50.5%
OT
0.0%
42.1%
Final 5 min
46.5%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Norris
54.0%▲
51.0%
49.9%
Zacha
56.0%▲
50.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2026 | 3 | 10:34 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 25, 2026 | 2 | 16:42 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Mar 25, 2026 | 2 | 12:57 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Mar 25, 2026 | 2 | 08:36 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Mar 25, 2026 | 2 | 04:33 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 25, 2026 | 1 | 04:49 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 09:59 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 04:14 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 03:12 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 00:22 | Defensive | Josh Norris |