Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.8% vs 53.2%). Look for Zacha on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Norris wins 54.4% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Norris 53.4% vs Zacha 52.8% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zacha 69.7%
Defensive zone
Norris 71.4%
Neutral zone
Zacha 50.2%
Result
Josh Norris favored at 58.5%
58.5%
41.5%
Norris
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Norris
Zacha
Last 5: Norris 3-2 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Norris
2
0
Norris
Zacha
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zacha
1
2
Norris
Zacha
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Norris
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (560)
54.1% (534)
-0.5%
Power Play
56.0% (109)
56.0% (109)
+0.0%
Penalty Kill
53.1% (98)
44.8% (96)
+8.3%
On penalty kill, Norris has a +8.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Norris is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (471).
Norris shoots left. Zacha is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (433).
Home / Away
Norris
Zacha
Home
53.6% (373)
53.4% (406)
Away
54.1% (394)
52.9% (333)
By Period
Norris
Zacha
P1
61.8%
56.8%
P2
51.7%
53.6%
P3
49.8%
49.2%
OT
27.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
55.7%
49.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Norris
54.0%▲
51.0%
53.8%
Zacha
56.0%▲
50.0%
53.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 08:17 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 05:41 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 11:25 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 3 | 04:11 | Defensive | Josh Norris |