Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Norris wins 43.4% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Norris 49.7% vs Stamkos 54.6% (-6.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Norris 55.1%
Defensive zone
Norris 69.5%
Neutral zone
Norris 57.9%
Result
Josh Norris favored at 60.8%
60.8%
39.2%
Norris
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Norris
Stamkos
Last 7: Norris 3-4 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Norris
Stamkos
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Norris
Stamkos
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Norris
Stamkos
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Norris
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (356)
56.1% (342)
-6.1%
Power Play
48.7% (76)
53.3% (92)
-4.6%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
62.5% (8)
-19.6%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +19.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Norris is 43.4% vs right-shot opponents (145).
Norris shoots left. Stamkos is 57.2% vs left-shot opponents (325).
Home / Away
Norris
Stamkos
Home
47.2% (193)
53.4% (208)
Away
51.6% (246)
57.7% (234)
By Period
Norris
Stamkos
P1
53.8%
55.6%
P2
48.2%
52.8%
P3
47.9%
59.1%
OT
0.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
45.6%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Norris
52.0%▲
50.5%
49.7%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 16:21 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 16:08 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 06:08 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 02:50 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 12:50 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |