Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.3% vs 48.2%). Look for MacLean on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowling 48.7% vs MacLean 48.5% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dowling 51.5%
Defensive zone
MacLean 52.6%
Neutral zone
MacLean 52.5%
Result
Kyle MacLean favored at 51.7%
48.3%
51.7%
Dowling
MacLean
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Dowling
MacLean
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowling
1
0
Dowling
MacLean
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacLean
0
1
Dowling
MacLean
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacLean
1
2
Dowling
MacLean
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowling
MacLean
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (318)
47.6% (540)
+1.1%
Power Play
20.0% (5)
66.7% (3)
-46.7%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (4)
60.9% (23)
-10.9%
On power play, MacLean has a +46.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacLean shoots left. Dowling is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (223).
Dowling shoots left. MacLean is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (368).
Home / Away
Dowling
MacLean
Home
49.0% (145)
47.6% (273)
Away
47.8% (182)
48.8% (293)
By Period
Dowling
MacLean
P1
48.1%
45.5%
P2
49.1%
48.8%
P3
47.8%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.5%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowling
54.0%▲
49.5%
48.3%
MacLean
56.0%▬
56.5%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | 2 | 15:47 | Defensive | Kyle MacLean |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 2 | 02:45 | Offensive | Justin Dowling |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 1 | 12:32 | Neutral | Kyle MacLean |