Scouting Report
Justin Dowling holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for MacLean on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowling 48.9% vs MacLean 47.9% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacLean 50.2%
Defensive zone
MacLean 52.9%
Neutral zone
MacLean 52.8%
Result
Kyle MacLean favored at 52.3%
47.7%
52.3%
Dowling
MacLean
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Dowling
MacLean
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowling
1
0
Dowling
MacLean
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacLean
0
1
Dowling
MacLean
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacLean
1
2
Dowling
MacLean
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowling
MacLean
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (652)
47.2% (849)
+2.2%
Power Play
40.6% (32)
62.5% (8)
-21.9%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (9)
56.7% (30)
-23.4%
On penalty kill, MacLean has a +23.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacLean shoots left. Dowling is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (455).
Dowling shoots left. MacLean is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (572).
Home / Away
Dowling
MacLean
Home
48.2% (301)
46.9% (426)
Away
49.2% (392)
48.4% (461)
By Period
Dowling
MacLean
P1
47.6%
46.6%
P2
50.4%
49.7%
P3
48.3%
46.5%
Final 5 min
52.2%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowling
54.0%▲
49.5%
48.8%
MacLean
56.0%▬
56.5%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | 2 | 15:47 | Defensive | Kyle MacLean |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 2 | 02:45 | Offensive | Justin Dowling |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 1 | 12:32 | Neutral | Kyle MacLean |