Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 53.6% vs right-shot opponents — Sourdif shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Sourdif 45.9% (+2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 82.4%
Defensive zone
McDavid 54.7%
Neutral zone
McDavid 74.9%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 73.9%
73.9%
26.1%
McDavid
Sourdif
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
McDavid
Sourdif
Last 5: McDavid 4-1 Sourdif
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Sourdif
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Sourdif
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
0
McDavid
Sourdif
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Sourdif
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
44.6% (556)
+2.9%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
50.0% (24)
-1.4%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
61.5% (13)
-15.0%
On penalty kill, Sourdif has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sourdif shoots right. McDavid is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (211).
McDavid shoots left. Sourdif is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (418).
Home / Away
McDavid
Sourdif
Home
50.2% (400)
43.6% (321)
Away
44.7% (365)
47.1% (272)
By Period
McDavid
Sourdif
P1
47.5%
43.1%
P2
48.6%
43.9%
P3
46.7%
48.6%
OT
33.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
51.3%
44.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Sourdif
32.0%▼
40.5%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 12:26 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 3 | 09:40 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 3 | 02:41 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 1 | 14:17 | Offensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 1 | 07:05 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |