Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Sourdif on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Sourdif wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sourdif 45.9% vs Monahan 52.8% (-7.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 86.2%
Defensive zone
Monahan 65.7%
Neutral zone
Monahan 86.5%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 73.5%
26.5%
73.5%
Sourdif
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Sourdif
Monahan
Last 8: Sourdif 5-3 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sourdif
5
0
Sourdif
Monahan
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
3
Sourdif
Monahan
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sourdif
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
44.6% (556)
53.2% (823)
-8.6%
Power Play
50.0% (24)
55.3% (159)
-5.3%
Penalty Kill
61.5% (13)
48.4% (95)
+13.1%
On penalty kill, Sourdif has a +13.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Sourdif is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (418).
Sourdif shoots right. Monahan is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (401).
Home / Away
Sourdif
Monahan
Home
43.6% (321)
54.6% (529)
Away
47.1% (272)
51.6% (548)
By Period
Sourdif
Monahan
P1
43.1%
49.0%
P2
43.9%
55.4%
P3
48.6%
53.6%
OT
100.0%
61.9%
Final 5 min
44.5%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sourdif
32.0%▼
40.5%
45.2%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 17:34 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 17:20 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 11:29 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 3 | 04:05 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 2 | 16:29 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 3 | 09:50 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 1 | 19:54 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 1 | 02:42 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |