Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Sourdif on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Sourdif wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sourdif 45.9% vs Monahan 51.3% (-6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 88.1%
Defensive zone
Monahan 61.6%
Neutral zone
Monahan 82.9%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 69.6%
30.4%
69.6%
Sourdif
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Sourdif
Monahan
Last 8: Sourdif 5-3 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sourdif
5
0
Sourdif
Monahan
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
3
Sourdif
Monahan
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sourdif
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
44.6% (556)
51.1% (11,356)
-6.5%
Power Play
50.0% (24)
53.7% (2,580)
-3.7%
Penalty Kill
61.5% (13)
46.0% (766)
+15.5%
On penalty kill, Sourdif has a +15.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Sourdif is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (418).
Sourdif shoots right. Monahan is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (5,401).
Home / Away
Sourdif
Monahan
Home
43.6% (321)
52.4% (7,358)
Away
47.1% (272)
50.2% (7,344)
By Period
Sourdif
Monahan
P1
43.1%
50.9%
P2
43.9%
51.7%
P3
48.6%
51.0%
OT
100.0%
53.5%
Final 5 min
44.5%
50.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sourdif
32.0%▼
40.5%
45.2%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 17:34 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 17:20 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 11:29 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 3 | 04:05 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 2 | 16:29 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 3 | 09:50 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 1 | 19:54 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 1 | 02:42 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |