Scouting Report
Sam Steel holds a +8.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Kolesar on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Kolesar wins 38.9% vs left-shot opponents — Steel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kolesar 43.8% vs Steel 49.4% (-8.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Steel 76.9%
Defensive zone
Steel 87.3%
Neutral zone
Steel 86.6%
Result
Sam Steel favored at 85.3%
14.7%
85.3%
Kolesar
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Kolesar
Steel
Last 6: Kolesar 5-1 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kolesar
1
0
Kolesar
Steel
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kolesar
2
1
Kolesar
Steel
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kolesar
2
0
Kolesar
Steel
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kolesar
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
40.6% (170)
49.3% (383)
-8.7%
Power Play
50.0% (6)
59.1% (22)
-9.1%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (12)
14.3% (7)
+19.0%
On penalty kill, Kolesar has a +19.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Kolesar is 38.9% vs left-shot opponents (126).
Kolesar shoots right. Steel is 42.6% vs right-shot opponents (141).
Home / Away
Kolesar
Steel
Home
38.0% (92)
49.4% (180)
Away
42.7% (96)
49.1% (232)
By Period
Kolesar
Steel
P1
41.0%
51.9%
P2
41.9%
43.8%
P3
37.7%
52.6%
Final 5 min
38.5%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kolesar
40.0%▲
38.0%
40.4%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
49.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2021 | 3 | 16:09 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Dec 31, 2021 | 2 | 04:26 | Defensive | Keegan Kolesar |
| Dec 1, 2021 | 3 | 12:10 | Offensive | Keegan Kolesar |
| Dec 1, 2021 | 2 | 12:09 | Neutral | Keegan Kolesar |
| Dec 1, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Keegan Kolesar |
| Dec 1, 2021 | 1 | 04:42 | Defensive | Keegan Kolesar |