Scouting Report
Tomas Nosek holds a +13.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Nosek on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Kolesar wins 38.9% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kolesar 43.8% vs Nosek 53.4% (-13.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kolesar 81.4%
Defensive zone
Kolesar 52.1%
Neutral zone
Kolesar 70.4%
Result
Keegan Kolesar favored at 59.4%
59.4%
40.6%
Kolesar
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Kolesar
Nosek
Last 5: Kolesar 1-4 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
0
3
Kolesar
Nosek
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Kolesar
Nosek
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kolesar
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
40.6% (170)
55.1% (557)
-14.5%
Power Play
50.0% (6)
50.0% (4)
+0.0%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (12)
47.7% (111)
-14.4%
On even strength, Nosek has a +14.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Kolesar is 38.9% vs left-shot opponents (126).
Kolesar shoots right. Nosek is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (280).
Home / Away
Kolesar
Nosek
Home
38.0% (92)
52.3% (342)
Away
42.7% (96)
55.5% (330)
By Period
Kolesar
Nosek
P1
41.0%
49.0%
P2
41.9%
53.8%
P3
37.7%
57.9%
Final 5 min
38.5%
50.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kolesar
40.0%▲
38.0%
40.4%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2021 | 3 | 04:24 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Dec 14, 2021 | 2 | 05:06 | Neutral | Keegan Kolesar |
| Dec 14, 2021 | 1 | 15:19 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Dec 14, 2021 | 1 | 04:16 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Dec 14, 2021 | 1 | 04:12 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |