Scouting Report
Tomas Nosek holds a +12.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Nosek on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Kolesar wins 39.1% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kolesar 43.4% vs Nosek 53.6% (-12.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kolesar 83.2%
Defensive zone
Kolesar 52.5%
Neutral zone
Kolesar 74.8%
Result
Keegan Kolesar favored at 61.4%
61.4%
38.6%
Kolesar
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Kolesar
Nosek
Last 5: Kolesar 1-4 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
0
3
Kolesar
Nosek
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Kolesar
Nosek
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kolesar
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
41.9% (382)
54.9% (2,674)
-13.0%
Power Play
50.0% (6)
44.7% (47)
+5.3%
Penalty Kill
35.3% (17)
47.4% (424)
-12.1%
On even strength, Nosek has a +13.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Kolesar is 39.1% vs left-shot opponents (299).
Kolesar shoots right. Nosek is 52.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,203).
Home / Away
Kolesar
Nosek
Home
38.2% (191)
52.7% (1,631)
Away
44.9% (214)
54.8% (1,514)
By Period
Kolesar
Nosek
P1
42.1%
52.3%
P2
43.2%
54.0%
P3
39.3%
54.6%
Final 5 min
42.4%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kolesar
40.0%▲
38.0%
41.7%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2021 | 3 | 04:24 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Dec 14, 2021 | 2 | 05:06 | Neutral | Keegan Kolesar |
| Dec 14, 2021 | 1 | 15:19 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Dec 14, 2021 | 1 | 04:16 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Dec 14, 2021 | 1 | 04:12 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |