Scouting Report
Nate Thompson holds a +16.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Hayes wins 38.2% vs left-shot opponents — Thompson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 38.0% vs Thompson 52.5% (-16.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 85.3%
Defensive zone
Hayes 66.6%
Neutral zone
Hayes 79.9%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 74.6%
74.6%
25.4%
Hayes
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Hayes
Thompson
Last 5: Hayes 1-4 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
2
Hayes
Thompson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
2
Hayes
Thompson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
37.1% (642)
54.4% (870)
-17.3%
Power Play
32.1% (28)
45.8% (24)
-13.7%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (11)
45.1% (162)
-45.1%
On penalty kill, Thompson has a +45.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots left. Hayes is 38.2% vs left-shot opponents (419).
Hayes shoots left. Thompson is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (666).
Home / Away
Hayes
Thompson
Home
36.7% (354)
55.3% (510)
Away
35.8% (327)
50.4% (546)
By Period
Hayes
Thompson
P1
33.6%
53.5%
P2
38.3%
52.2%
P3
37.0%
52.7%
Final 5 min
39.0%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
36.3%
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2015 | 2 | 09:28 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Mar 22, 2015 | 1 | 12:30 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Jan 7, 2015 | 3 | 17:46 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Jan 7, 2015 | 3 | 14:27 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 7, 2015 | 3 | 00:56 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |