Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.7% vs 47.1%). Look for Kapanen on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Hayes wins 46.3% vs right-shot opponents — Kapanen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 47.7% vs Kapanen 47.5% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kapanen 53.4%
Defensive zone
Hayes 61.9%
Neutral zone
Hayes 50.8%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 52.0%
52.0%
48.0%
Hayes
Kapanen
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Hayes
Kapanen
Last 8: Hayes 4-4 Kapanen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kapanen
1
2
Hayes
Kapanen
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Hayes
Kapanen
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
2
1
Hayes
Kapanen
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Kapanen
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (6,708)
47.2% (559)
+0.3%
Power Play
51.7% (702)
51.0% (51)
+0.7%
Penalty Kill
45.3% (697)
39.5% (38)
+5.8%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +5.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kapanen shoots right. Hayes is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (2,975).
Hayes shoots left. Kapanen is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (482).
Home / Away
Hayes
Kapanen
Home
48.1% (3,982)
47.1% (340)
Away
47.3% (4,125)
47.1% (308)
By Period
Hayes
Kapanen
P1
47.5%
42.7%
P2
47.6%
50.2%
P3
47.9%
48.2%
OT
54.1%
25.0%
Final 5 min
49.3%
45.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
47.7%
Kapanen
48.0%▬
48.5%
47.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 04:14 | Offensive | Oliver Kapanen |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 05:08 | Offensive | Oliver Kapanen |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 07:38 | Defensive | Oliver Kapanen |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 00:59 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 01:03 | Neutral | Oliver Kapanen |
| Oct 14, 2024 | 3 | 18:57 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 14, 2024 | 3 | 18:50 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 14, 2024 | 1 | 15:24 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |