Scouting Report
Brady Tkachuk holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Tkachuk wins 44.2% vs right-shot opponents — Stenlund shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 52.1% vs Stenlund 51.2% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 89.6%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 91.5%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 54.7%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 65.0%
65.0%
35.0%
Tkachuk
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Tkachuk
Stenlund
Last 8: Tkachuk 5-3 Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
5
0
Tkachuk
Stenlund
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
0
2
Tkachuk
Stenlund
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stenlund
0
1
Tkachuk
Stenlund
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (192)
54.4% (592)
-6.5%
Power Play
57.8% (187)
42.9% (14)
+14.9%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
44.1% (229)
-44.1%
On penalty kill, Stenlund has a +44.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. Tkachuk is 44.2% vs right-shot opponents (172).
Tkachuk shoots left. Stenlund is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (644).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Stenlund
Home
56.0% (175)
50.7% (402)
Away
49.8% (205)
52.0% (433)
By Period
Tkachuk
Stenlund
P1
55.0%
56.5%
P2
51.9%
52.4%
P3
47.3%
45.2%
OT
77.8%
100.0%
Final 5 min
49.0%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
52.6%
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
51.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 00:27 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 1 | 18:04 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 1 | 12:13 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 1 | 12:02 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Apr 4, 2024 | 3 | 08:30 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Apr 4, 2024 | 1 | 18:52 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Apr 4, 2024 | 1 | 16:21 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Apr 4, 2024 | 1 | 11:32 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |