Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +20.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Bedard on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Bedard wins 39.2% vs right-shot opponents — Stenlund shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 39.8% vs Stenlund 58.3% (-20.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stenlund 57.3%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 84.5%
Neutral zone
Stenlund 80.8%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 67.4%
32.6%
67.4%
Bedard
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Bedard
Stenlund
Last 5: Bedard 3-2 Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bedard
3
0
Bedard
Stenlund
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
0
1
Bedard
Stenlund
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stenlund
0
1
Bedard
Stenlund
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
38.0% (618)
58.6% (797)
-20.6%
Power Play
38.7% (31)
62.5% (24)
-23.8%
Penalty Kill
57.1% (7)
60.5% (233)
-3.4%
On power play, Stenlund has a +23.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. Bedard is 39.2% vs right-shot opponents (171).
Bedard shoots right. Stenlund is 48.3% vs right-shot opponents (209).
Home / Away
Bedard
Stenlund
Home
40.5% (316)
58.6% (548)
Away
36.2% (340)
59.7% (506)
By Period
Bedard
Stenlund
P1
37.2%
60.2%
P2
36.9%
59.1%
P3
40.7%
58.3%
OT
50.0%
58.6%
Final 5 min
43.4%
58.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
38.3%
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
59.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2025 | 2 | 17:36 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 7, 2025 | 1 | 08:54 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 1 | 17:22 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 8, 2024 | 2 | 02:32 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Oct 8, 2024 | 2 | 02:26 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |