Kevin Stenlund vs Michael McCarron
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for McCarron on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 54.3% vs McCarron 52.5% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stenlund 57.4%
Defensive zone
McCarron 57.5%
Neutral zone
McCarron 58.7%
Result
Michael McCarron favored at 58.7%
41.3%
58.7%
Stenlund
McCarron
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Stenlund
McCarron
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: McCarron
1
3
Stenlund
McCarron
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
McCarron
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (615)
53.1% (672)
+3.0%
Power Play
53.2% (47)
18.2% (11)
+35.0%
Penalty Kill
52.1% (307)
53.7% (205)
-1.6%
On power play, Stenlund has a +35.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McCarron shoots right. Stenlund is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (320).
Stenlund shoots right. McCarron is 49.1% vs right-shot opponents (265).
Home / Away
Stenlund
McCarron
Home
57.0% (458)
52.8% (477)
Away
52.6% (511)
52.8% (411)
By Period
Stenlund
McCarron
P1
55.1%
56.5%
P2
53.3%
53.2%
P3
56.4%
49.0%
OT
42.1%
0.0%
Final 5 min
57.6%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
54.7%
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
52.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 18:28 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 15:36 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 08:10 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 05:13 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |