Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Stenlund wins 57.9% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 54.3% vs Kuraly 50.1% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stenlund 59.8%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 69.7%
Neutral zone
Stenlund 57.6%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 60.5%
60.5%
39.5%
Stenlund
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Stenlund
Kuraly
Last 5: Stenlund 3-2 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
1
Stenlund
Kuraly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
1
0
Stenlund
Kuraly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stenlund
2
1
Stenlund
Kuraly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (615)
51.8% (444)
+4.3%
Penalty Kill
52.1% (307)
45.3% (150)
+6.8%
On penalty kill, Stenlund has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Stenlund is 57.9% vs left-shot opponents (649).
Stenlund shoots right. Kuraly is 44.7% vs right-shot opponents (226).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Kuraly
Home
57.0% (458)
54.6% (304)
Away
52.6% (511)
45.5% (290)
By Period
Stenlund
Kuraly
P1
55.1%
55.2%
P2
53.3%
45.7%
P3
56.4%
49.5%
OT
42.1%
0.0%
Final 5 min
57.6%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
54.7%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 16:02 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 12:59 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 10:16 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 19:33 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 1 | 03:02 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |