Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Stenlund wins 53.1% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 51.2% vs Kuraly 48.4% (+3.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kuraly 54.6%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 57.9%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 54.2%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 55.6%
44.4%
55.6%
Stenlund
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Stenlund
Kuraly
Last 8: Stenlund 3-5 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
1
2
Stenlund
Kuraly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
2
3
Stenlund
Kuraly
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (592)
49.4% (445)
+5.0%
Power Play
42.9% (14)
100.0% (3)
-57.1%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (229)
41.9% (117)
+2.2%
On power play, Kuraly has a +57.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Stenlund is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (644).
Stenlund shoots right. Kuraly is 42.2% vs right-shot opponents (211).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Kuraly
Home
50.7% (402)
49.2% (248)
Away
52.0% (433)
47.3% (317)
By Period
Stenlund
Kuraly
P1
56.5%
48.3%
P2
52.4%
44.7%
P3
45.2%
51.7%
Final 5 min
48.1%
41.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
51.4%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2024 | 3 | 18:41 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 2 | 17:25 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 6, 2023 | 2 | 18:15 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 6, 2023 | 1 | 18:51 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 6, 2023 | 1 | 16:50 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 6, 2023 | 1 | 10:08 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 6, 2023 | 1 | 06:09 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 6, 2023 | 1 | 03:09 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |