Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Noesen on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Stenlund wins 45.5% vs right-shot opponents — Noesen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 51.2% vs Noesen 45.9% (+9.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Noesen 67.2%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 88.0%
Neutral zone
Stenlund 68.2%
Result
Stefan Noesen favored at 53.0%
47.0%
53.0%
Stenlund
Noesen
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Stenlund
Noesen
Last 5: Stenlund 3-2 Noesen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Noesen
1
2
Stenlund
Noesen
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stenlund
2
0
Stenlund
Noesen
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Noesen
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (592)
41.1% (95)
+13.3%
Power Play
42.9% (14)
46.2% (13)
-3.3%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (229)
100.0% (1)
-55.9%
On penalty kill, Noesen has a +55.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Noesen shoots right. Stenlund is 45.5% vs right-shot opponents (191).
Stenlund shoots right. Noesen is 48.4% vs right-shot opponents (31).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Noesen
Home
50.7% (402)
36.2% (58)
Away
52.0% (433)
49.0% (51)
By Period
Stenlund
Noesen
P1
56.5%
35.6%
P2
52.4%
48.3%
P3
45.2%
45.7%
Final 5 min
48.1%
54.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
51.4%
Noesen
46.0%▼
47.5%
42.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2024 | 3 | 17:48 | Offensive | Stefan Noesen |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 3 | 15:42 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 3 | 12:33 | Offensive | Stefan Noesen |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 1 | 08:59 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 1 | 16:30 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |