Auston Matthews vs Kirill Marchenko
2023-24 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +20.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Matthews wins 53.1% vs right-shot opponents — Marchenko shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.2% vs Marchenko 42.5% (+20.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 82.5%
Defensive zone
Matthews 95.2%
Neutral zone
Matthews 93.5%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 91.6%
91.6%
8.4%
Matthews
Marchenko
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Matthews
Marchenko
Last 5: Matthews 4-1 Marchenko
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Marchenko
0
1
Matthews
Marchenko
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Marchenko
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
3
0
Matthews
Marchenko
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Marchenko
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (1,169)
30.8% (65)
+22.6%
Power Play
65.8% (76)
41.7% (12)
+24.1%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (74)
50.0% (2)
-8.1%
On power play, Matthews has a +24.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Marchenko shoots right. Matthews is 53.1% vs right-shot opponents (478).
Matthews shoots left. Marchenko is 33.3% vs left-shot opponents (48).
Home / Away
Matthews
Marchenko
Home
56.5% (703)
46.3% (41)
Away
50.0% (616)
18.4% (38)
By Period
Matthews
Marchenko
P1
52.1%
27.0%
P2
54.0%
30.8%
P3
54.0%
46.7%
OT
57.7%
100.0%
Final 5 min
54.6%
9.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.4%
Marchenko
34.0%▼
35.7%
32.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2023 | 2 | 02:58 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 2 | 00:22 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 00:28 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 3 | 01:35 | Offensive | Kirill Marchenko |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 2 | 08:16 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |