Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for MacLean on neutral-zone draws (70% H2H, 10 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacLean 47.9% vs Dowd 50.7% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
MacLean leads 13-4 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Dowd 58.9%
Defensive zone
Dowd 67.1%
Neutral zone
Dowd 68.8%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 67.1%
32.9%
67.1%
MacLean
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
4
(17 meetings)
13
4
MacLean
Dowd
Last 8: MacLean 6-2 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacLean
2
0
MacLean
Dowd
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacLean
4
1
MacLean
Dowd
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacLean
7
3
MacLean
Dowd
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacLean
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
47.2% (849)
52.4% (6,009)
-5.2%
Power Play
62.5% (8)
56.1% (164)
+6.4%
Penalty Kill
56.7% (30)
44.1% (1,635)
+12.6%
On penalty kill, MacLean has a +12.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. MacLean is 50.2% vs right-shot opponents (315).
MacLean shoots left. Dowd is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,134).
Home / Away
MacLean
Dowd
Home
46.9% (426)
51.9% (3,897)
Away
48.4% (461)
49.5% (3,912)
By Period
MacLean
Dowd
P1
46.6%
51.7%
P2
49.7%
50.4%
P3
46.5%
50.3%
Final 5 min
54.9%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacLean
56.0%▬
56.5%
47.7%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2025 | 3 | 11:33 | Offensive | Kyle MacLean |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 3 | 04:20 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 1 | 09:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 1 | 04:52 | Neutral | Kyle MacLean |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 12:25 | Defensive | Kyle MacLean |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 07:24 | Neutral | Kyle MacLean |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 01:20 | Neutral | Kyle MacLean |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 2 | 09:25 | Neutral | Kyle MacLean |