Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for MacLean on neutral-zone draws (70% H2H, 10 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacLean 48.5% vs Dowd 49.9% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
MacLean leads 13-4 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
MacLean 85.1%
Defensive zone
Dowd 91.0%
Neutral zone
Dowd 52.7%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 59.5%
40.5%
59.5%
MacLean
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
4
(17 meetings)
13
4
MacLean
Dowd
Last 8: MacLean 6-2 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacLean
2
0
MacLean
Dowd
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacLean
4
1
MacLean
Dowd
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacLean
7
3
MacLean
Dowd
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacLean
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
47.6% (540)
52.2% (835)
-4.6%
Power Play
66.7% (3)
60.0% (10)
+6.7%
Penalty Kill
60.9% (23)
44.0% (350)
+16.9%
On penalty kill, MacLean has a +16.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. MacLean is 52.0% vs right-shot opponents (198).
MacLean shoots left. Dowd is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (833).
Home / Away
MacLean
Dowd
Home
47.6% (273)
51.5% (619)
Away
48.8% (293)
48.1% (576)
By Period
MacLean
Dowd
P1
45.5%
51.7%
P2
48.8%
51.6%
P3
50.0%
47.0%
Final 5 min
59.5%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacLean
56.0%▬
56.5%
48.2%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2025 | 3 | 11:33 | Offensive | Kyle MacLean |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 3 | 04:20 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 1 | 09:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 1 | 04:52 | Neutral | Kyle MacLean |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 12:25 | Defensive | Kyle MacLean |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 07:24 | Neutral | Kyle MacLean |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 01:20 | Neutral | Kyle MacLean |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 2 | 09:25 | Neutral | Kyle MacLean |