Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). MacLean wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacLean 47.7% vs Aho 51.3% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacLean 53.9%
Defensive zone
MacLean 80.0%
Neutral zone
MacLean 71.4%
Result
Kyle MacLean favored at 62.6%
62.6%
37.4%
MacLean
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
MacLean
Aho
Last 5: MacLean 1-4 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
3
MacLean
Aho
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
MacLean
Aho
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacLean
1
0
MacLean
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacLean
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
47.0% (837)
50.1% (6,415)
-3.1%
Power Play
62.5% (8)
59.1% (1,297)
+3.4%
Penalty Kill
56.7% (30)
46.0% (446)
+10.7%
On penalty kill, MacLean has a +10.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. MacLean is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (565).
MacLean shoots left. Aho is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (5,145).
Home / Away
MacLean
Aho
Home
46.7% (424)
52.4% (4,199)
Away
48.1% (451)
50.2% (3,959)
By Period
MacLean
Aho
P1
46.3%
51.2%
P2
49.1%
52.1%
P3
46.7%
50.8%
Final 5 min
54.4%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacLean
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.4%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2025 | 3 | 19:45 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 2 | 11:28 | Neutral | Kyle MacLean |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 3 | 02:57 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 2 | 06:32 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 1 | 13:45 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |