Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). MacLean wins 46.3% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacLean 47.9% vs Aho 51.2% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 55.2%
Defensive zone
MacLean 74.5%
Neutral zone
MacLean 64.6%
Result
Kyle MacLean favored at 54.7%
54.7%
45.3%
MacLean
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
MacLean
Aho
Last 5: MacLean 1-4 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
3
MacLean
Aho
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
MacLean
Aho
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacLean
1
0
MacLean
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacLean
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
47.2% (849)
50.1% (6,619)
-2.9%
Power Play
62.5% (8)
58.9% (1,310)
+3.6%
Penalty Kill
56.7% (30)
46.3% (464)
+10.4%
On penalty kill, MacLean has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. MacLean is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (572).
MacLean shoots left. Aho is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (5,305).
Home / Away
MacLean
Aho
Home
46.9% (426)
52.4% (4,308)
Away
48.4% (461)
50.1% (4,085)
By Period
MacLean
Aho
P1
46.6%
51.1%
P2
49.7%
52.0%
P3
46.5%
50.7%
Final 5 min
54.9%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacLean
56.0%▬
56.5%
47.7%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2025 | 3 | 19:45 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 2 | 11:28 | Neutral | Kyle MacLean |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 3 | 02:57 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 2 | 06:32 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 1 | 13:45 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |