Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pederson 49.0% vs Hertl 54.2% (-5.5%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Pederson 72.7%
Defensive zone
Pederson 69.9%
Neutral zone
Pederson 72.9%
Result
Lane Pederson favored at 71.9%
71.9%
28.1%
Pederson
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Pederson
Hertl
Last 10: Pederson 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
4
Pederson
Hertl
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
3
Pederson
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pederson
1
0
Pederson
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pederson
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (323)
53.8% (8,268)
-4.9%
Power Play
47.4% (19)
59.3% (1,975)
-11.9%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (9)
46.3% (806)
-1.9%
On power play, Hertl has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Pederson is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (263).
Pederson shoots right. Hertl is 56.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,133).
Home / Away
Pederson
Hertl
Home
53.1% (145)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
45.6% (206)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Pederson
Hertl
P1
49.6%
53.6%
P2
45.8%
54.1%
P3
50.9%
55.3%
Final 5 min
45.9%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pederson
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.7%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2023 | 3 | 07:53 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| May 8, 2021 | 1 | 08:57 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| May 8, 2021 | 1 | 00:37 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| May 7, 2021 | 3 | 18:57 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| May 7, 2021 | 3 | 18:09 | Neutral | Lane Pederson |
| May 7, 2021 | 3 | 13:14 | Offensive | Lane Pederson |
| May 7, 2021 | 3 | 09:46 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 28, 2021 | 1 | 18:36 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 28, 2021 | 1 | 06:49 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 26, 2021 | 1 | 17:13 | Offensive | Lane Pederson |