Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +9.9% FO% edge overall. Look for McMichael on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McMichael wins 45.9% vs left-shot opponents — Eller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 43.2% vs Eller 52.0% (-9.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Eller 54.5%
Defensive zone
Eller 93.1%
Neutral zone
Eller 76.1%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 77.0%
23.0%
77.0%
McMichael
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
McMichael
Eller
Last 9: McMichael 6-3 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McMichael
2
0
McMichael
Eller
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McMichael
2
1
McMichael
Eller
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
McMichael
Eller
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
43.4% (761)
52.8% (742)
-9.4%
Power Play
40.7% (59)
67.6% (34)
-26.9%
Penalty Kill
30.8% (52)
46.2% (156)
-15.4%
On power play, Eller has a +26.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. McMichael is 45.9% vs left-shot opponents (591).
McMichael shoots left. Eller is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (599).
Home / Away
McMichael
Eller
Home
42.1% (444)
54.5% (448)
Away
42.8% (428)
50.2% (484)
By Period
McMichael
Eller
P1
42.5%
52.8%
P2
41.9%
50.9%
P3
42.5%
53.4%
OT
100.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
39.7%
55.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
34.0%▼
45.0%
42.4%
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2024 | 2 | 05:30 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |
| Apr 4, 2024 | 1 | 09:56 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 2 | 14:52 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 2 | 10:51 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 2 | 07:22 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 2 | 07:18 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 1 | 07:14 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 2 | 18:54 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 2 | 09:11 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |