Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +12.5% FO% edge overall. Eller wins 57.0% vs left-shot opponents — Carlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 55.7% vs Carlsson 45.0% (+12.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Eller 50.4%
Defensive zone
Eller 81.6%
Neutral zone
Eller 65.9%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 60.8%
60.8%
39.2%
Eller
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Eller
Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Eller
Carlsson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
1
0
Eller
Carlsson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (434)
45.5% (661)
+11.0%
Power Play
77.8% (9)
46.3% (82)
+31.5%
Penalty Kill
56.5% (46)
33.3% (84)
+23.2%
On power play, Eller has a +31.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Eller is 57.0% vs left-shot opponents (302).
Eller shoots left. Carlsson is 43.0% vs left-shot opponents (540).
Home / Away
Eller
Carlsson
Home
53.1% (211)
42.5% (428)
Away
59.7% (278)
46.4% (399)
By Period
Eller
Carlsson
P1
55.4%
45.4%
P2
58.1%
39.7%
P3
57.1%
48.5%
Final 5 min
60.5%
39.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
56.9%
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 07:33 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 02:30 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 08:29 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |