Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Kastelic on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Eller wins 56.7% vs right-shot opponents — Kastelic shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 55.7% vs Kastelic 58.3% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Kastelic leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Eller 80.1%
Defensive zone
Eller 56.8%
Neutral zone
Eller 66.3%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 69.9%
69.9%
30.1%
Eller
Kastelic
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Eller
Kastelic
Last 10: Eller 3-7 Kastelic
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Eller
Kastelic
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
0
2
Eller
Kastelic
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kastelic
1
3
Eller
Kastelic
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Kastelic
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (434)
61.2% (340)
-4.7%
Power Play
77.8% (9)
83.3% (6)
-5.5%
Penalty Kill
56.5% (46)
56.0% (141)
+0.5%
On power play, Kastelic has a +5.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kastelic shoots right. Eller is 56.7% vs right-shot opponents (187).
Eller shoots left. Kastelic is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (405).
Home / Away
Eller
Kastelic
Home
53.1% (211)
60.9% (233)
Away
59.7% (278)
59.1% (254)
By Period
Eller
Kastelic
P1
55.4%
58.6%
P2
58.1%
58.7%
P3
57.1%
63.1%
Final 5 min
60.5%
67.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
56.9%
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
60.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 19:03 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 06:28 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 2 | 02:28 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 1 | 15:44 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 1 | 15:41 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 1 | 06:21 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 27, 2025 | 3 | 14:28 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 27, 2025 | 3 | 12:22 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 27, 2025 | 2 | 02:29 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 27, 2025 | 1 | 02:45 | Offensive | Lars Eller |