Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Eller wins 61.3% vs right-shot opponents — Kastelic shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 51.9% vs Kastelic 53.4% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Eller 68.4%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 53.6%
Neutral zone
Eller 54.5%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 53.7%
53.7%
46.3%
Eller
Kastelic
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Eller
Kastelic
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
0
1
Eller
Kastelic
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Eller
Kastelic
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Kastelic
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (650)
55.4% (345)
-2.6%
Power Play
69.2% (13)
50.0% (4)
+19.2%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (88)
35.3% (17)
+10.2%
On power play, Eller has a +19.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kastelic shoots right. Eller is 61.3% vs right-shot opponents (225).
Eller shoots left. Kastelic is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (299).
Home / Away
Eller
Kastelic
Home
52.6% (340)
50.6% (162)
Away
51.8% (411)
57.4% (204)
By Period
Eller
Kastelic
P1
52.4%
61.5%
P2
54.1%
52.8%
P3
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.3%
46.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
52.2%
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 02:49 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 2 | 17:49 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 1 | 04:58 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |