Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Zibanejad on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Eller wins 54.0% vs right-shot opponents — Zibanejad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 56.2% vs Zibanejad 51.7% (+6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zibanejad 77.4%
Defensive zone
Zibanejad 79.4%
Neutral zone
Zibanejad 75.0%
Result
Mika Zibanejad favored at 77.4%
22.6%
77.4%
Eller
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
4
(4 meetings)
0
4
Eller
Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
0
4
Eller
Zibanejad
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
57.2% (306)
53.8% (591)
+3.4%
Power Play
77.8% (9)
47.4% (38)
+30.4%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (35)
43.6% (117)
+16.4%
On power play, Eller has a +30.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. Eller is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (161).
Eller shoots left. Zibanejad is 51.6% vs left-shot opponents (546).
Home / Away
Eller
Zibanejad
Home
52.7% (150)
48.2% (307)
Away
62.0% (200)
54.4% (439)
By Period
Eller
Zibanejad
P1
54.1%
54.0%
P2
59.6%
51.0%
P3
59.8%
50.6%
Final 5 min
63.2%
55.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
54.0%▼
58.0%
58.0%
Zibanejad
46.0%▼
54.0%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2026 | 2 | 18:34 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 2 | 12:50 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 2 | 03:04 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 1 | 06:48 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |